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Abstract

We seek to understand how the environment controls species distributions. Despite the fact that a great deal of work in physiology has been done on this problem and that literally thousands of niche models (regressions of distribution on environment) have been run, we know surprisingly little about basic questions. Which aspects of environment are most central in controlling the distribution and abundance of organisms? How does this change with organism? with scale? what are the mechanisms linking environment to species distributions? We propose to assemble a state-of-the-art set of environmental layers that incorporate well-known but rarely used measures that have direct links to physiological processes like frost, water stress, growing season, soil properties, drainage properties, etc. We will assemble these variables into a unified, global, gridded, high resolution data set that will be made available to the public. This will be of enormous benefit to the community. We will use this data to explore the above-mentioned basic questions about the nature of the links between the environment and the distribution of organisms.

Details

Challenge:  Can we predict distributions of XXX number of species more effectively

Data sources:  Plant data in the tropics.  Marine species data.  Plant and mammal species data from topographically complex areas.  East Africa bird data. 

Outcomes:  Two goals - develop GIS layers; use of layers in SDM/ENM and determine variables that are most important in modeling.

Overall Outputs:  Online database/archive of standardized gridded layers, best practices/user guide to work with layers, scientific/conceptual advance that backs user guide using empirical examples. 

First working group output:  Inventory of available global or continental layers filled out with spatial extent, grain, existing availability, etc.  Tasks associated with names and a plan.  How can we leverage person-power to do the work?  Postdocs/graduate students to coordinate people, data, do a lot of work.  Discuss funding opportunities that could be leveraged to get to deliverable number 1.  Within NCEAS.  Outside funding sources (NASA). 

Monday:
 15 minutes x 15 people=4 hours
 1 hour Setting goals by PIs, general discussion, challenge species, authorship guidelines
 1 hour working group desig

Tuesday 9AM-Friday 4:00 PM

One Possible Model Agenda (layers first, models at the end)

Tuesday --- Climate, downscaling, biovariables -  Joint session 9-10:30am.  Breakout session into three breakouts (climate, downscale, biovariable) 10:30-12:30.  Lunch 12:30-2pm.  Reconvene discussion 2-3:30pm.  Breakout final 3:30-5pm.

Wednesday --- Surface processes.  Joint session 9-10:30am.  Breakouts into multiple groups 10:30-12:30pm.  Lunch.  Reconvene Discussion 2-3:30pm.  (landcover, physical surface, soil, hydrology, human pop.+structure+impact)  3:30 Postdoc fellows tea 4:30 Group outing

Friday --- MORNING: Modeling approaches break outs (assembling data, scale, determination of variable importance) 9-10:30.  10:30-noon reconvene to discuss modeling next steps.  Lunch.  2:30-4pm --- Wrap-up, homework, information product generation.  Ideas for synthesis paper.  Next meeting details.  

Another Model Agenda (modeling and layers concurrent):

Tuesday ---- Joint Session 9-10:30am (Climate, downscaling, environmental variables and use in species distribution modeling).  Breakout session into three breakouts (climate, downscaling, environmental variables and use in species distributional modeling) 10:30-12:30.  Lunch 12:30-2pm.  Reconvene discussion 2-3:30pm.  Breakout reports and final discussion 3:30-5pm.

Wednesday --- Joint Session 9-10:30am.  Surface processes and niche experimental datasets compilation.  Breakout into multiple groups 10:30-12:30 (landcover, physical surface, soil, hydrology).  Lunch.  Reconvene joint discussion 2-3:30.  3:30 Postdoc Fellow Tea.  4:30 Group outing

Thursday --- Joint session 9-10:00am.  Human impact layers and code development/scripting processes to generate summary layers. Discuss best of all possible worlds infrastructure.  Discuss scripting needed to generate new summary layers. Breakout session 10:30-12:30pm (human population, grazing, land use, informatics infrastructure, metadata, etc).  Lunch.    AFTERNOON:  2-5pm Niche modeling approaches using new layers.  Modeling approaches.  

Friday --- MORNING: Modeling approaches break outs (assembling data, scale, determination of variable importance) 9-10:30.  10:30-noon reconvene to discuss modeling next steps.  Lunch.  2:30-4pm --- Wrap-up, homework, information product generation.  Ideas for synthesis paper.  Next meeting details. 

Outlined issues (working groups)

Climate

    Assume Precip, Min/avg/max temp monthly for baseline period - others (irradiance, humidity, ?)