Bradford et al. 2007

Bradford, M. J., G. C. Taylor, and J. A. Allan. 1997. Empirical review of coho salmon smolt abundance and the prediction of smolt production at the regional level. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 126:49-64.

Regional habitat and fisheries management planning requires estimates of the capacity of watersheds to produce salmonids. To predict the average abundance of smolts of coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch produced by streams and rivers, we related estimates of smolt abundance to habitat features derived from maps and discharge records. We assembled a database of 474 annual estimates of smolt abundance from 86 streams in western North America for this analysis. We found that only stream length and to a lesser extent latitude were useful in predicting mean smolt abundance. The frequency distribution of annual estimates of smolt abundance from individual streams tended towards a normal rather than the more usual lognormal distribution; the median coefficient of variation in abundance was 37%. Our results are consistent with the view that, on average, smolt abundance is limited by spatial habitat, but that there is significant annual variation in abundance probably due to variation in habitat quality caused by climate, flow, or other factors. We conclude that forecasting smoll yield from stream length and latitude is feasible at the watershed or regional level, but that the precision of a prediction for a single stream is poor. A more detailed approach will be required for local forecasting.