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Ibrekk and Morgan (1987)

Reference

Ibrekk, H. and M.G. Morgan. 1987. Graphical communication of uncertain quantities to non-technical people. Risk Analysis 7(4):519-529.

Abstract

Nine pictorial displays for communicating quantitative information about the value of an uncertain quantity, x, were evaluated for their ability to communicate , p(x > a) and p(b > x > a) to well-educated semi-and nontechnical subjects. Different displays performed best in different applications. Cumulative distribution functions alone can severely mislead some subjects in estimating the mean. A "rusty" knowledge of statistics did not improve performance, and even people with a good basic knowledge of statistics did not perform as well as one would like. Until further experiments are performed, the authors recommend the use of a cumulative distribution function plotted directly above a probability density function with the same horizontal scale, and with the location of the mean clearly marked on both curves.


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