Supplemental readings from the Reader

Raskin, P., Tariq Banuri, Gilberto Gallopín, Pablo Gutman, Al Hammond, Robert W. Kates, and Rob Swart. 2002. Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. Boston: Stockholm Environment Institute, p. 1-45.

1.4.3.1 HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTIONS: Imaginatively sketched- Scenarios Analytic efforts to describe human-environment futures vary between two poles of push or pull: projecting the past and present into the future (push) and moving the present towards desired or away from feared futures (pull). As products of science, these scenario efforts are often simply sketched but rooted in long-term models, trends, and observations (2.4.3.3). But they are also highly imaginative in their assumptions as to future events, processes, and probably most important values. The Reading, a product of the only global scenario group inclusive of scenario-creators from both the north and the south, includes both the push of “business as usual” and policy reform projections and imaginative pulls of hope and fear.

Parris, T. M., and R. W. Kates. 2003. Characterizing and measuring sustainable development. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 28:559-586

2.4.2.1 INTEGRATIVE METHODS AND MODELS: Observations, indicators and monitoring - Indicators To move to a sustainability transition, societies need to establish or change direction, assess progress, and obtain warnings of unsustainability. Quantitative indicator systems relevant to the sustainability transition, such as institutional audits, integrated “sustainability” metrics of cities or regions, or global accounts of carbon, populations, or ecosystems, were early products of sustainability efforts. Despite or perhaps because of upwards of 500 efforts, no sets of indicators have achieved the widespread use and credibility of such indicators as gross domestic product (GDP)/capita or the human development index (HDI). The Reading reviews the diverse efforts to measure and to characterize sustainable development by examining twelve selected efforts. It then proposes an analytical framework that clearly distinguishes among goals, targets, and indicators, of sustainable development and related trends, driving forces, and policy responses.