Supplemental readings from the Reader

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005. Summary for decision makers. In Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis, 1-24. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

1.3.5 PROTECTING THE EARTH’S LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS: Ecosystem services Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services, the commodities that people use such as fiber, food, timber, and water; regulating services that affect climate, disease, floods, wastes, and water quality; cultural services that provide recreational, aesthetic, and spiritual benefits; and supporting services that assist in soil formation, photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment completed in 2005 found that overall people have made greater changes to ecosystems in the last half of the 20th century than at any time in human history. Overall these changes have enhanced human well-being, but have been accompanied by ever increasing degradation. For some people and some regions, the effects of these changes already outweigh the benefits. Reversing the ongoing ecosystem degradation, while meeting the increased demand for ecosystem services, is a major challenge of sustainable development. The Reading is the major summary of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, the authoritative report on the causes of global and regional ecosystem change, consequences for nature and human well-being, and ways of ameliorating or adapting to such change.

Alcamo, J., D. van Vuuren, C. Ringler, W. Cramer, T. Masui, J. Alder, and K. Schulze. 2005. Changes in nature’s balance sheet: Model-based estimates of future worldwide ecosystem services. Ecology and Society 10(2):19. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol

2.4.3.3 INTEGRATIVE METHODS AND MODELS: Analytic methods - Scenario analysis Behind the imaginatively sketched story lines of most scenarios (1.4.3.1) lies a formal analytic process by which scenarios are created, described, compared, and evaluated. This begins with projections for push scenarios or backcasting for pull scenarios (see 1.4.3.1), based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships, and incorporating simulation models of long-term trends and major driving forces. The Reading illustrates this analytic process in the creation of four alternative scenarios for the demand for ecosystem services used in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA). The scenarios variously emphasize global trade or technology and diversified gated communities or ecosystem development.